The British government has been busy negotiating a trio of trade-deals in the past few weeks. New deals with the US, India and EU have been met with a mixture of excitement and trepidation.
Against a particularly bleak economic backdrop, the UK jobs market has been much subdued for an extended period, as businesses have battled to reduce costs and headcounts.
With more trade-deals expected to be announced soon, Will Bellinger looks at what impact they may have on hiring trends and how long that may take:
The view from a thousand feet
It’s fair to say the UK economy has been a mixed bag over the last few years, growing just 0.4% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024. Whilst the economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, the long-term fiscal future is far from certain, as businesses grapple with the cost of US-tariffs as well as hikes in national insurance and minimum wage increases.
When it comes to hiring trends, the picture has arguably been considerably worse. Job vacancies have been on a downward trajectory, with a 5.3% decrease to 761,000 from February to April 2025, with decreases reported in 15 out of 19 sectors.
At the same time, nominal wage growth has returned to 6%, with real wage growth sitting at a more modest 2%.
What impact could trade-deals have on hiring?
Whilst the UK has not fully avoided US tariffs, it has managed to negotiate a deal which has softened the blow. This is expected to safeguard jobs in sectors who were particularly at risk, such as automotive.
It remains to be seen whether these deals will create an influx of new vacancies or how long it may take before the job market sees a meaningful recovery. This largely relies on how quickly the UK can ramp up growth, and how consistent this will be. It’s likely that businesses will wait to review any initial results over the next few months before committing to any major plans to expand.
Which sectors could benefit?
It’s likely that the recent EU-UK trade deal could have positive ramifications for food and drink manufacturers, with reduced barriers for UK farmers and growers to export goods to the EU. This could lead to cost-reductions and reduced bureaucracy across the supply-chain, which would be a welcomed respite for UK supermarket retailers.
Other sectors that could stand to benefit include renewable energy and manufacturing markets. Since the 2023 invasion of Ukraine, the UK and EU, who had already been looking to reduce their dependence on traditional energy sources, increase efforts to move away from fossil fuels, particularly their reliance on Russian producers. The newly signed trade deal includes agreements to collaborate on reducing carbon emissions whilst creating new jobs in the renewables sector. This could create new opportunities for business in industries such as hydrogen and solar energy, and in turn, new vacancies.
Split between new full-time and Interim vacancies?
It’s likely that an increase in job vacancies would have a positive impact on opportunities for Interim Managers. The general feeling is that many senior employees have been reluctant to change jobs over the last 18 months in an uncertain market. If business confidence returns this could lead to executives changing roles, leaving short-term leadership gaps needing to be plugged by experienced Interims. Other businesses may want to test the water before changing their organisational design by bringing in short term resource to assess the growth opportunity before committing fully.
A brightened economic outlook could also lead companies to invest further in new transformation and change leadership programmes. Some of these programmes have been on hold or cut back across recent years, and transformation interims are likely to be in demand as businesses return to growth.
Whatever happens, it’s likely that we will all have to queue less on our next trip to the airport, and that can only be a good thing for everyone.
To learn more about how Interim Management can support your business through change and transformation visit nscg.com/interim-management/